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Preparing for Pandemic Flu
What Is an Influenza Pandemic, or Pandemic Flu? An influenza pandemic occurs when a new flu virus emerges among humans and spreads easily from person to person. Because the virus is new to humans, people have little or no immunity to it and the virus spreads worldwide. It is not possible to predict with certainty when the next flu pandemic will occur or how severe it will be, but the time to plan is now. New influenza viruses emerge as a result of a process called antigenic shift, which causes a sudden and major change in influenza A viruses. These changes occur when proteins on the surface of the virus combine in new ways as a result of mutation or exchange of genetic material between multiple influenza viruses. If such changes result in a new influenza A virus subtype that can infect humans and spread easily from person to person, an influenza pandemic can occur. In a severe influenza pandemic:
As a result, businesses and schools might close, and basic services, including transportation and food delivery, may be disrupted. It is important that families and communities be prepared for an influenza pandemic. Will we see an influenza pandemic? Many scientists believe it is a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs. However, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted. Influenza pandemics occurred three times in the past century in 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69. Scientists cannot predict whether an avian influenza (H5N1) virus will cause a pandemic. Today, H5N1 is a bird flu. There are no reported cases of sustained human-to-human passage of H5N1. However, as it mutates, it is possible the virus could become capable of passing human to human and then spread very quickly. That is why we are focusing on comprehensive public health efforts increasing surveillance, monitoring for outbreaks, international cooperation, increasing antiviral stockpiles, and building more robust capacity for vaccine production that will help protect us no matter what pandemic strain emerges or where. Three conditions must be met for a pandemic to start: 1) a new influenza virus subtype must emerge for which there is little or no human immunity; 2) it must infect humans and cause illness; and 3) it must spread easily and sustainably (continue without interruption) among humans. The H5N1 virus in Asia, Europe, and Africa meets the first two conditions: it is a new virus for humans (H5N1 viruses have never circulated widely among people), and it has infected a growing number of people, killing over half of those known to have been infected. However, the third condition, the establishment of efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus, has not occurred. For this to take place, the H5N1 virus would need to improve its transmissibility among humans. Although highly pathogenic H5N1 currently poses a pandemic threat, other avian influenza A subtypes have infected people in recent years. For example, in 1999, H9N2 infections were identified in Hong Kong; in 2003, H7N7 infections occurred in the Netherlands and in 2004, H7N3 infections occurred in Canada. These examples of other avian influenza viruses that have infected humans demonstrate the potential of an influenza virus to evolve into a pandemic strain.
The World Health Organization (WHO)
developed an alert system (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html)
to help inform the world about the seriousness of a pandemic. The alert system
has six phases, with Phase 1 having the lowest risk of human cases and Phase 6
posing the greatest risk of pandemic.
How Do We Prepare for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak? You can take some simple steps NOW to prepare You can:
By taking these steps, you will be better prepared for a pandemic and other emergencies. Its important for everyone to know what to do about pandemic flu. More Information
(Information on this website from www.pandemicflu.gov and other sources)
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Last updated: 03/21/2008 |
